With the Major League Baseball season quickly approaching, here is a list of players who we would not draft at their current ADP:
Mike Trout (LAA) Current ADP: 20
These first two are going to surprise a ton of people, especially more casual fans who hear these names and think of them as the best players around the league. From a talent, standpoint they are not wrong. The issue with Trout is his health. Trout has not played more
than 53 games in a season since 2019. He is also stealing bases a lot less these days, with only 3 SB in that same span. Trout is still great when plays, the issue, sadly, is keeping him on the field.
Fernando Tatis, Jr. (SD) Current ADP: 83
Tatis is a generational talent and arguably one of the best players in the league, but after another injury, he is expected to miss at least half of the season. If Tatis was healthy, he would be an easy top 5 pick, but he is simply not healthy. Looking at the opportunity cost, I
would stay away from Tatis in the first 10 rounds of the draft. If he were to somehow slip beyond that, I would become interested in stashing him.
Josh Hader (MIL) Current ADP: 37
Our argument remains the same for any of the closers near the top of the positional ranks. Closers are too often drafted way too early. Hader is immensely talented, but he largely contributed to one category. Saves may be particularly hard to predict this season, but
we will take our chances later and spend our early draft capital on players with 4+ category upside.
Salvador Perez (KC) Current ADP: 76
Much like RP, catchers are often drafted too early. Generally, catchers play less often than other hitters and require more days of rest. There is a ton of hype around this 32-year old player who finished 2021 with a career-high 48 homeruns, but since his major league debut in 2011, Perez has never hit more than 30 HR in any other season. As always, we will wait to take our catcher(s) towards the end of the draft.
Trevor Bauer (LAD) Current ADP: 277
Off the field issues has the MLB constantly extending Bauer's administrative leave. We see no reason to use a bench spot gambling on a player who is likely not to see the field in 2022.
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