Last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge was the first event played when the PGA Tour resumed action in the wake of the pandemic. Now, we will see this event again, after what was a full year of PGA golf. Before we get into this week’s event, we have to acknowledge the amazing accomplishment of last week’s PGA Championship winner, Phil Mickelson, who had not won a PGA event since 2013 and had not finished in the top 10 since August of last year. And that’s our quick reminder that with commitment anything is possible.
This weekend’s event will be held at Colonial Country Club, which has hosted this event (under a few different names and sponsors) since 1946. Only The Masters has lasted longer on the Tour without changing courses. The course itself features narrow, tree-lined fairways, a handful of doglegs, plenty of bunkers, and relatively small bentgrass greens. Accuracy and short game play are essential to wining here, unlike our last few events which favored long shots of the tee. The weather for this weekend is expected to be wet, with rain projected throughout the first three rounds. And as always in Texas, the wind can pick up and influence play on a moment’s notice. We will certainly be looking at golfers who play well in poor weather conditions when we make our picks. Other metrics we will be targeting this week include strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained on approach, strokes gained around the green, ball striking, and par 4 efficiency.
In this post, we want to look at these metrics and highlight some of our favorite golfers in the competition:
Jordan Spieth ($11,200-DK; +1050 to win)
Spieth was somewhat of a disappointment last week at the Championship, finishing in 30th. This is a great opportunity for DFS players to jump on as many will jump off of a golfer who burned them last time out. Last week included, Spieth has finished top ten in six of his last nine events. Spieth also has tremendous course history at Colonial, making eight cuts in eight events played here. There is no rational reason to fade Spieth this weekend and we will definitely take on some exposure.
Collin Morikawa ($10,500-DK; +1400 to win)
After finishing second in this event last year, which was a playoff loss to Daniel Berger, a young Morikawa has continued to improve as a golfer. He ranks top five in our models for every metric listed above. Morikawa has also made eleven consecutive cuts. It should go without saying that he will be our favorite golfer, both for betting and fantasy, heading into this weekend.
Charles Hoffman ($8,700-DK; +4000 to win)
Notwithstanding the high-priced heroes listed above, Hoffman could be the hottest golfer in the field right now. He has made nine consecutive cuts and thirteen of his last fourteen overall. Hoffman also has four consecutive top-25 finishes. Not only does Hoffman stand out in all of our relevant metrics, but his price on DK has dropped over $1000 since the start of the season. We won’t hesitate to jump in on those kinds of savings.
Chris Kirk ($7,600-DK; +5000 to win)
Kirk has now missed back-to-back cuts, but that just means lower ownership and a lower price for the 2015 winner at this event. Unlike, those last two courses, Colonial fits Kirk’s style of play much better. Six top 16 finished at this course in the last ten years speaks directly to that end. Kirk should be a great lower owned play this week and our favorite in this mid-to-low tier.
Vincent Whaley ($6,200-DK; +22500 to win)
Digging for value, Whaley stands out well above the rest. He has made cuts in his last eight events and has shown an elite level short game. Not bad for a guy that comes in near min-price. If you plan to play both Spieth and Morikawa in the same lineup, including Whaley in your lineups might be the best way to get there.
*This preview does not represent our final picks for this event. For our full set of picks, check out our Game Picks section!
**Odds accurate at time of posting.