After a short, one event trip to Ohio, the PGA Tour heads back down south to Congaree Golf Club in South Carolina for the Palmetto Championship. We will see a smaller field of golfers in this event, especially among the best in the sport, as they prepare for next week’s U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. Only eight of the top fifty golfers in the world rankings will compete this weekend. We will be digging even deeper than usual to find the right value picks.
This week’s course is one of the longest on the Tour with sand and water hazards just off the fairways on most holes. In total, ten holes have a water hazard. The weather for this weekend is expected to be hot and wet, with rain expected on Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. We will be closely monitoring these plays and targeting golfers with advantageous tee times. Temperatures are expected to be in the 90’s, but there is little wind in the forecast.
We will target metrics including strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained on approach, strokes gained around the green, strokes gained putting, ball striking, scrambling and par 5 efficiency. In this post, we want to look at these metrics and highlight some of our favorite golfers in the competition:
Brooks Koepka (11,100-DK; +850 to win)
We mentioned the smaller field, but we also have to see that the top pros competing do not quickly shift their focus to next week as well. Our favorite golfer from the top tier is Koepka, who has a win and two runner-up finishes in his last six starts. No golfer ranks higher in our model.
Tyrrell Hatton ($10,200-DK; +1200 to win)
Hatton is another golfer who ranks near the top of our model. While he does have a chance to win outright, we like Hatton more for his consistent high finishes. He has six top-25 finishes on the season.
Lucas Glover ($8,600-DK; +2900 to win)
Now, we start looking at golfers who we do not play so often. Glover is a South Carolina native and the official Ambassador of this week’s course. He has made eleven of fourteen cuts on the season, including two recent top-10 finishes.
Vance Whaley ($7,700-DK; +8500 to win)
Whaley has made nine consecutive cuts, including four straight top-30 finishes. It is still shocking to think this young golfer was on the Korn Ferry Tour this time last year.
Bronson Burgoon ($7,200-DK; +12500 to win)
Burgoon could be a popular value play, and rightfully so. He does not jump off the page in our model, but Burgoon has made eight of his last ten cuts. It is hard to find value like that at this price point. We will have exposure in all formats.
John Pak ($6,900-DK; +17500 to win)
Digging for value, we look to an even younger golfer who will be making his professional debut this weekend. We saw Pak compete against pros once as an amateur and he finished among the top golfers at the event. With such a shallow field this weekend, there may not be better time to take a flyer on a young wonderkid.
*This preview does not represent our final picks for this event. For our full set of picks, check out our Game Picks section!
**Odds accurate at time of posting.