MMA DFS: Basic Strategy

Volatility makes MMA DFS both frustrating and incredibly profitable for players who understand how scoring, ownership, and fight dynamics work together. This guide breaks down core MMA DFS strategy so you can consistently build stronger lineups and avoid common traps.

Understand the Scoring First

Before worrying about fighters, salaries, or matchups, you must understand how DFS scoring works.

On DraftKings, fighters score points for:

• Significant strikes

• Takedowns and advances

• Knockdowns

• Control time (indirectly via advances)

• Finishes (huge bonuses, especially Round 1)

The key takeaway: finishes matter more than wins.

A fighter who wins a boring decision can easily score fewer points than a fighter who loses but lands volume, scores takedowns, or pushes the pace.

Prioritize Finish Equity Over “Who Wins”

One of the biggest beginner mistakes is focusing on picking winners instead of picking high-scoring outcomes.

In MMA DFS, you should ask:

• Can this fighter win early?

• If they don’t win, can they still score well?

• Does this fight have a high pace?

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Fights with knockout power, submission threats, or aggressive grappling are DFS gold. Low-volume, point-fighting matchups are usually landmines — even if one side is a heavy favorite.

Why Favorites Aren’t Always Safe

Large betting favorites often carry massive ownership, but that doesn’t mean they’re always good DFS plays.

Ask yourself:

• Does this favorite rely on control-heavy grappling with few advances?

• Are they content to win decisions?

• Is their opponent durable?

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A -400 favorite who grinds out a slow decision can score 70 points — that’s rarely enough in tournaments. Meanwhile, an underdog who gets knocked out in Round 2 might score more than expected due to early aggression.

Stack Fights Only When It Makes Sense

In cash games (head-to-heads, double-ups), stacking both sides of a fight can be viable if:

• The fight is likely to go to a high-volume decision

• Both fighters throw a lot and absorb a lot

In tournaments (GPPs), stacking is usually a mistake unless:

• It’s a five-round main event

• Both fighters have elite volume and durability

In most cases, tournaments are won by fighters who finish fights — not by rostering two decision winners.

Salary Doesn’t Equal Scoring Potential

Cheap fighters can win tournaments. A $7,200 underdog with one-punch knockout power, aggressive submission attempts, and/or a willingness to brawl can outscore a $9,400 fighter who wins safely.

Instead of asking “Who’s underpriced?”, ask:

• Who can break the slate at low ownership?

• Who benefits most from chaos?

Ownership Is a Weapon

You don’t need to fade every popular fighter — but you must be aware of ownership.

Some leverage ideas:

• Pivot off a popular favorite to a similar fighter in a different fight

• Play the opponent of an over-owned fighter with questionable durability

• Use low-owned underdogs with real finishing paths

MMA has the highest upset rate of any DFS sport. Embrace it.

Build Lineups That Tell a Story

Every good MMA DFS lineup has a clear narrative.

Examples:

• “Multiple early finishes across the card”

• “Underdogs with knockout power win”

• “One dominant grappler smashes while others finish early”

Avoid lineups that feel random. If you can’t explain how your lineup wins, it probably won’t.

Cash Games vs GPPs: Different Games Entirely

Cash Games

• Safer fighters

• Higher floors

• Less concern about ownership

• Decision wins are fine

Tournaments (GPPs)

• Chase ceilings

• Prioritize Round 1 and Round 2 finishes

• Accept volatility

• Be comfortable losing often to win big occasionally

Trying to play the same strategy in both formats is a fast way to lose money.

Bankroll Management Keeps You Alive

Even perfect MMA analysis loses sometimes.

Basic rules:

• Never risk more than 5–10% of your bankroll on one slate

• Expect long downswings

• Track your results by contest type

Survival is part of the strategy. For our full discussion of Bankroll Management click here.

Final Thoughts

MMA DFS rewards players who think in probabilities, not certainties. You’re not trying to predict fights — you’re trying to predict which outcomes score the most points relative to ownership.

Focus on:

• Finish equity

• Pace and aggression

• Salary vs ceiling

• Ownership leverage

Do that consistently, and the results will come.

*For more content and free picks, check us out on X (@FTO_picks).