NFL DFS and Betting Preview: Conference Championships

 January 23, 2026

This weekend marks the most exciting slate of the 2025-26 NFL Playoffs: the AFC and NFC Championship Games. Winners will punch their ticket to Super Bowl LX on February 8 in Santa Clara, California. For DFS, this weekend’s slate is short and unique – just two games – which means limited roster flexibility, fewer studs to choose from, and an additional need for sharp roster construction.

We will have plenty more to say about SBLX after this weekend, but here are our thoughts on the upcoming Championship games:

AFC Championship Game:

New England Patriots (-4.5) @ Denver Broncos (O/U 42.5) – 1pm ET, Sunday, Jan 25, Broadcast on CBS

• Broncos QB Situation: Denver’s signal caller Jarrett Stidham — with limited NFL starting experience — steps into the biggest game of his career after starter Bo Nix suffered a season-ending injury in the Divisional Round. Stidham’s poise and Sean Payton’s offense will be tested against a tough Patriots defense.

• Patriots Momentum: New England’s offense — led by MVP finalist quarterback Drake Maye — has been among the league’s most efficient all season. Their balance of run and pass and a stingy defense make them the oddsmakers’ favorite.

• Game-Flow to Watch: If Denver can control the ground game and limit turnovers, they have a real shot at a home-field edge. But the Patriots’ ability to strike quickly through the air could swing this one early.

NFC Championship Game:

Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) @ Seattle Seahawks (O/U 46.5) – 4:30pm ET, Sunday Jan 25, Broadcast on FOX

• Rams Chasing History: Los Angeles can make history by becoming just the sixth team ever to win three playoff road games in one postseason — a rare and impressive feat.

• Seahawks’ 12^th Man: Seattle hosts the conference final at Lumen Field, where the crowd and conditions are notoriously challenging for visiting teams. They’ve looked dominant since sweeping the Rams late in the regular season.

• Game-Flow to Watch: Look for Seattle’s pass rush to test the Rams’ offensive line and for each running game to try to control tempo. Special teams and turnovers could be decisive in a game this evenly matched.

DFS Strategy Overview

• Small Slate: With only four teams, cash games become harder to differentiate, and ownership will cluster around obvious high-ceiling plays — consider creative value plays and using leverage spots.

• Cash vs. GPP:  For cash (50/50, Head-to-Head) lineups, prioritize steady floors and volume — especially RBs with touches and pass catchers who see consistent targets. For GPP (i.e. – Millionaire Maker), don’t shy away from lower-owned value and contrarian punt plays.

• Game stacks: Most of us already try to stack our QB with pass catching options, but you should also consider using a “runback” from the opposing team who will likely perform well in the event of a high scoring game. I try to consider at least one player from the opposing team of every player in my lineup on any NFL DFS slate.  

Our Favorite DraftKings Targets

Quarterback:

Matthew Stafford ($6,300 DK)

If you follow our stacking strategy, QB will be one of the biggest pivot points as you build your lineup. Stafford may be the highest priced QB on the slate, but offers week-winning upside in a game with the highest implied total on the slate. The Rams also provide a good mix of high floor and high variance pass catchers to stack.

Drake Maye ($6,000 DK) 

Drake “Drake Maye” Maye is slightly cheaper than Stafford and projects to be the highest scoring QB on the slate. He might be harder to stack in cash games though.  

Strategy tip: Hammering home our earlier point about using a “runback” – If you roster Stafford, consider pairing him with Seattle skill players to leverage the higher total environment.

Running back:

Kenneth Walker III ($6,200 DK) 

With Zach Charbonnet now out of the season, Walker’s floor and ceiling should both see significant increases. Walker models as one of our favorite cash game options on the slate.

Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,000) 

Stevenson has left no doubt that he is the bell-cow of this Patriots rushing attack. Treveyon Henderson has looked horrible throughout the entirety of the playoffs and we do not see that changing here.

RJ Harvey ($5,900) 

With Stidham under center, Harvey should have a high floor with heavy volume and additional work in the passing game.

Strategy Tip: Paying up for Walker improves consistency, while Harvey is a value pivot — great for balancing salary in cash games.

Wide Receiver:

Puka Nacua ($9,000 DK) 

Puka is a clear priority target in both GPP and cash formats. He’s been Rams’ go-to pass catcher and even gets ad-hoc rushing usage that boosts DK scoring.

Kayshon Boutte ($4,500)

Diggs is a fine option, but Boutte is our favorite wide receiver to pair with Drake Maye on this slate. Be warned, Boutte’s high ceiling comes with a very low floor in what might quickly turn into a run-heavy game script.

Strategy Tip: When stacking, we like to roster 3+ pass catchers from the same team. This includes RBs, WRs, and TEs.

Tight End:

Hunter Henry ($4,800 DK)

We typically like to target value plays at TE. Thankfully, none of our options on this slate will break the bank. We mentioned Boutte above, but Henry is our favorite pass catcher to pair with Maye on Sunday.

Strategy Tip: The Rams passing attack utilized a small handful if tight ends. While Henry offers the highest floor at the position, consider using a Rams TE in GPP formats, especially if you plan to multi-enter.

D/ST:

New England Patriots ($4,800 DK)

Considering that they are the only team set to face a back-up quarterback, we expect the Patriots to be the highest owned defense on this slate. This could make for a solid cash game option, but we suggest considering a different defense for your GPP builds.

Strategy Tip: We love stacking D/ST with a running back from the same team, since a successful game script for your each is typically highly correlated.  

Final Thoughts

This Conference Championship DFS slate will be all about finding the balance between proven production and salary leverage. Lock in high-floor players like Walker and Nacua for cash games, then sprinkle in value pivots and GPP pivots to chase the big payouts. With only two games, every roster spot matters — make them count!

*As I am sure you will quickly see, we are ramping our way back up in the content space. For more picks and for more slate coverage that you don't see yet, feel free to reach out. I am most active on "X" these days (@FTO_picks). Hopefully, plenty of articles and YouTube videos will not be far away.

**This preview does not represent our final betting picks for this event. For our full set of picks, check out our Game Picks section!

***Odds accurate at time of posting.