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PGA AT&T Byron Nelson 2021

Updated: Jan 14

For the first time in over eight decades this event will be held outside of Dallas County, moving about 35 miles north to TPC Craig Ranch, which hosted the Korn Ferry Tour Championships in both 2008 and 2012. The course is a relatively short par-72 with wide, tree-lined fairways and a creek running through that creates obstacles on holes 14 and 18.


With many of the golfers never playing this new course to the Tour, course history is mostly not a factor. Instead, we will be targeting metrics including strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained putting, ball striking, par 4 efficiency, and par 5 efficiency. Finally, weather reports seem to be in our favor, with temperatures expected to be in the 70s, a small chance of rain on Sunday, and little wind. We will be leaving weather related metrics out of models again this week.


In this post, we want to look at these metrics and highlight some of our favorite golfers in the competition:


We mentioned the lack of course history for most golfers in the field, but we can, instead, look to some local golfers who may benefit from personal experience on the course and in the conditions. One such Texan, who always seems to play well in Texas, is Jordan Spieth, $10,700 on DK and +1100 to win. Last month, Spieth won the Valero Texas Open, and then tied for third in the Masters the week after. He has taken some time off since then, but we like Spieth to get right back into the mix this weekend.


Another Texan we like this weekend is Will Zalatoris, $9700 on DK and +2200 to win. His missed cut last week may scare some people away, which is great for those of us sticking with Zalatoris. In the events he has played, Zalatoris has made 30 of 32 cuts this season. He has three top 10 finishes in his last ten events, including a runner-up finish at last month’s Masters. Zalatoris will definitely be in some of our lineups this weekend.


Bryson DeChambeau, $11,200 on DK and +800, can be had for slightly more on DK and pops in a handful of relevant metrics. DeChambeau is first on Tour in eagles per hole, third in par 5 birdie or better percentage, and ninth in birdie’s per hole. In March, DeChambeau won the Arnold Palmer Classic and has finished in the top 10 in three of his last four events, including a tie for ninth last week. DeChambeau will likely be on most people’s radar, but for plenty of good reasons.


Scottie Scheffler, $9,400 on DK and +2200 to win, who is a solid golfer in his own right, stands out most this week because of his pricing discrepancy. Scheffler has the sixth best odds to win this weekend, but is the tenth most expensive golfer on DK. That is the kind of value DFS players should love.


Digging for some value, Doug Ghim, $7,500 on DK and +7000 to win, stands out. He has shown good form lately, making four of his last six cuts all while losing strokes putting on Bermuda grass. This weekend, the course’s Bentgrass plays to Ghim’s strengths, a surface that Ghim has gained strokes on over his career.


One more value golfer this weekend, K.H. Lee, $6,900 on DK and +17500 to win, stands out to us as well. Most notably, Lee recently finished second at the Waste Management Open on a course that is often compared to TPC Craig Ranch, our host this weekend. In DFS, it will likely take a few of these lower priced golfers to afford a few studs at the top.


*This preview does not represent our final picks for this event. For our full set of picks, check out our Game Picks section!


**Odds accurate at time of posting.


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