It’s time for another Major championship on the PGA Tour as golfers head to Torrey Pines South for the 121st U.S. Open Championship. Unlike last week, we have a loaded field of golfers this week with each of the top 50 golfers and 77 of the top 100, including defending champion Bryson DeChambeau, all competing this week.
Torrey Pines South is a course that many golfers are familiar with. The course normally plays as a par-72, but the USGA has dropped it to par-71 for this week by changing the sixth hole from a short par-5 to a long par-4. Overall, this course features eleven of the top thirty holes played on Tour this season. The weather is expected to be warm, with temperatures ranging from the mid-60s to mid-80s. We also expect little wind and absolutely no rain.
To win the U.S. Open, it takes a complete game. Distance off the tee is preferred for this event, but accuracy will also be important with the thick rough. Truly though, golfers do not need to be elite in any particular area of their game this week, but having elite ability at something, whether it be striking, scrambling, putting, or any other metric, will certainly help. We will target metrics including strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained on approach, strokes gained around the green, strokes gained putting, ball striking, scrambling and par 5 efficiency. In this post, we want to look at these metrics and highlight some of our favorite golfers in the competition:
John Rahm ($11,200-DK; +1050 to win)
Most of the golf world agrees how terrible it was to watch as Rahm was forced to withdraw from The Memorial while he was leading the tournament. Now, Rahm is back, cleared to play, and the betting favorite at this year’s U.S. Open. His odds reflect much more than this sentiment, Rahm absolutely crushes Torrey Pines, with a win in 2017, a second place finish in 2020, and a seventh place finish on the course back in January. This weekend we could watch Rahm bring home his first Major championship and what a story that would be.
Bryson DeChambeau ($10,400-DK; +1500 to win)
The defending U.S. Open champion could be our favorite golfer in his price range on Draft Kings. DeChambeau’s game is a perfect fit for this course. He ranks first in our model for strokes gained off the tee. DeChambeau also excels at bogey avoidance, which is huge in an event like this.
Brooks Koepka ($10,100-DK; +1900 to win)
Koepka seems to bring his best to every Major championship. In his last twenty-one entries, he has four wins, three second place finishes, and eighteen top-25s. He missed the cut in just one of those entries, at The Masters, where he was clearly still recovering from injury. Koepka is healthy now and ranks right among the top golfers in our model.
Tony Finau ($8,900-DK; +2200 to win)
FInau is another golfer who seems to be at his best in the Major championships. In his last thirteen entries, Finau has finished top-10 nine times. He also finished as the runner-up on this course back in January. Better yet, at this price point on DK, you will not find a better value golfer.
Jason Kokrak ($7,600-DK; +5500 to win)
Kokrak stands out as one of our favorite cash game players on DK. He is another golfer who has excelled at Torrey Pines, with three top-25 finishes on the course. Lately, he has been putting better than ever and even won an event (Charles Schwab). Kokrak will bring a perfect combination of course history and recent form into this week’s Major championship.
Jhonattan Vegas ($6,800-DK; +14000 to win)
If you read our posts regularly, you know that we like to dig deep for value. This week, our favorite value play is Vegas, who finished as the runner-up last weekend at the Palmetto Championship. He has also made fifteen of his last twenty cuts this season. Good luck finding a better golfer at this price range.
*This preview does not represent our final picks for this event. For our full set of picks, check out our Game Picks section!
**Odds accurate at time of posting.