Arnold Palmer Invitational 2026: DFS and Betting Preview

March 4, 2026

What a wild finish at the Cognizant Classic last week. Our picks all performed fairly well...

One and Done: Frank had Lowry T2. Collin had Mitchell T6.

Top: Lowry T2 Mitchell: T6 Koepka: T9 Berger: T32

Fade: Homa: T13 Power: T52

Dark Horse: Dahmen: T9 Hossler: T23 Higgo: T40

Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge · Orlando, Florida

The 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational once again brings the PGA TOUR’s best to one of its most storied and challenging Signature Events. With a $20 million purse, a limited field of 72 players, and 700 FedExCup points on offer, this week sets a competitive tone as players tune up ahead of THE PLAYERS Championship and the rest of the spring schedule.

The Course

Location: Orlando, Florida

Par: 72

Yardage: 7,466 yards

Designer: Dick Wilson (1961), later refined by Arnold Palmer himself

Layout: Parkland, demanding, strategic

Purse: $20 million ($4 million to the winner)

Bay Hill is deceptively difficult. In 2020 held a scoring average of 74 which was the hardest on tour. It is long, penal, and precise. While it’s technically “flat,” the course features:

Water hazards in play on 9 of 18 holes. Four par-3s all north of 199 yards. Thick Bermuda rough and large greens that reward accuracy. Wind conditions that can shift strategy rapidly.

Scoring here requires more than pure distance — elite tee-to-green ball-striking, tight approaches, par-5 scoring, scrambling ability, and strong short game all separate contenders from the field. Can you really expect a course Arnold Palmer redesigned and refined to be anything else?

Looking Back and Legacy

Originally a successor to the Florida Citrus Open Invitational, the Arnold Palmer Invitational has been played at Bay Hill since 1979, and Arnold Palmer hosted the event annually until his passing. Winners now receive a red cardigan sweater in his honor — a unique symbol of mastery at this event.

This tournament is a Signature Event — one of the most prized non-major stops on the PGA TOUR — frequently attracting the world’s top stars.

Here’s a look at recent champions, illustrating both elite performance and strong course history:

2025: Russell Henley (−11)

2024: Scottie Scheffler (−15)

2023: Kurt Kitayama (−9)

2022: Scottie Scheffler (−5)

2021: Bryson DeChambeau (−11)

2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-4)

Scheffler has been particularly dominant over the past years, winning multiple times and always contending when in form. Rory McIlroy’s 2018 win also stands out, and his consistent record at Bay Hill makes him always a contender.

The Purse

A signature event for good reason on tour, this is a top tier purse at $20,000,000

Our Favorite Golfers This Week (DraftKings pricing and odds)

Due to the incredibly strong field and tough decisions we will use our normal 3-4 golfers per tier format, but will also include honorable mentions.

Top Picks:

Scottie Scheffler ($14,100 DFS; +335 to win)

Normally we say “have to put him because he’s the best current golfer on the planet” but this week is different. 5 starts at this event 5 cuts made, 2 wins, and hasn’t finished outside of the top 15. If there was a golfer Arnold Palmer desinged this course not named Tiger Woods, this is the guy. If only Arnie was alive to see him play.

Collin Morikawa ($9,600 DFS; +2700 to win)

Not just because he spells his first name with 2 L’s like one of us (can’t trust the 1 L’s). He is looking and hopefully back to his top form. May only be 3 for 5 cuts made but he makes them count. He has a 2^nd (last year) and a T9. He has the tools to win at this golf course if his game is on.

Ludvig Aberg ($8,400 DFS; +3600 to win)

Aberg is a tough one but we are going on gut feeling he will be in the top 10 this week and if not he will be on the cusp of it. He’s played 3 times and made all 3 cuts. He has finished 22^nd, 24^th, and 25^th. He isn’t at the form so far this year we would expect but this being a longer course fits him well if he can be accurate.

Victor Hovland ($8,500 DFS; +3900 to win)

Hard to consider the 17^th ranked golfer on the OWGR list to be a stretch top pick but that’s how good this field is. He is 6 for 7 cuts made at this event with a 2^nd and a 10^th. If Hovland hits the ball accurate off the tee the rest will fall into place and you’ll see him on the 1^st page on Sunday. He seems to have worked on his short game which was always his weakest and if you ask any great golfer.. short game is the key to winning.

Fade - Outside of top 15

Xander Schauffele ($10,000 DFS; +2050 to win)

In our eyes, Xander will need to wait another year to be successful here. History says he will make the cut as he is 4 for 4 but his best finish it 24^th and even with a T7 his last event he hasn’t given us enough confidence that he will turn it around this year, here.

Patrick Cantlay ($8,800 DFS; +3500 to win)

Cantlay is a notorious late season bloomer. If this event was played in July instead of March, Cantlay could be in contention every year. That being said he makes the cut here, has a T4 in 2023, but since has been 31^st and 36^th. We see the later 2 rounds trending in a fade direction.

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,300 DFS; +3100 to win)

Don’t bet against him missing the cut he is 10 for 11. Some success but 1 cut and 8 finishes outside the T15. Very capable of contending but in a field like this you have to fade some big players.

Rory McIlroy ($11,600 DFS; +890 to win)

As stated above stacked field and we are going with our gut on this one and it is completely against the grain. He is 11 of 11 making the cut, 1 win, and in 11 events only 2 are outside the top 15. This is a gut pick and we believe this year Rory as a hiccup and slips outside of the T15. Don’t take it if you don’t feel the same way, and we wouldn’t blame you.

Dark Horse - outright winner to top 15

Robert MacIntyre ($9,000 DFS; +3600 to win)

His style of play fits Bay Hill well. He is 4 for 4 on cuts this year and 2 for 2 at the Arnold Palmer with a T11 last year. Solid value for a small outright win.

Justin Thomas ($7,600 DFS; +5500 to win)

Welcome back JT! Making his first apperance of the season and first since surgery it is a tough test to come back to. I’d imagine because it is close to his home in Jupiter that played a part in his decision to come back… and of course the $20mil purse. Normally would be hard to consider him a darkhorse but he is 4 for 4 cuts made here with T12.

Sepp Straka ($7,900 DFS; +5800 to win)

Straka as begun to find his place on the PGA tour in recent years now ranking #13 on the OWGR. While he started off this event awful missing the first 4 cuts, in his last 2 has made the cut and finished T5 last year. He isn’t billboard golfer, but he is steadily around on Sunday’s.

Sungjae Im ($6,500 DFS; +14500 to win) 

Another golfer making is season debut this week. While he has fallen down the OWGR to #72 he is very capable of getting back to his consistent top 20 rank from 2020-2024. He is 7 for 7 cuts made here never finishing outside T21.

Honorable Mention

Si Woo Kim ($9,200 DFS; +2800 to win); Harris English ($8,900 DFS; +3800 to win); Rickie Fowler ($8,000 DFS; +4300 to win); Cam Young ($9,100 DFS; +3100 to win); Sam Burns ($8,000 DFS; +4200 to win)

Our One-and-Done Picks

Collin – Collin Morikawa

Frank – Collin Morikawa

*That’s it for this week. Check back next week for our The Players Championship preview and follow us on our new X accounts (@FTO_picks and @FTO_fun)!

**This preview does not represent our final betting picks for this event. For our full set of picks, check out our Game Picks section!

***Odds accurate at time of posting.