Charles Schwab Challenge 2026: DFS and Betting Preview

May 26, 2026

Wyndham Clark came on strong over the weekend to take it home beating some of the best golfers in the world. We knew it was going to be a birdie fest but Clark was a surprise and a pleasant one for the game of golf.

Tournament Overview

The Charles Schwab Challenge is the longest-running non-major event on the PGA Tour, hosted at the same venue since 1946. Often called "Hogan's Alley" after Ben Hogan's five victories here, Colonial rewards precision, course management, and elite iron play over raw power.

This is a classic invitational-style setup with a strong but not fully Signature-level field. Ludvig Åberg headlines as the clear favorite, with solid contenders like Russell Henley, defending champ Ben Griffin, Justin Thomas, and Rickie Fowler in the mix.

⛳Course Breakdown: TPC Craig Ranch

·       Yardage: 7,289

·       Par: 70

·       Designed originally by John Bredemus and Perry Maxwell in 1936, the course underwent a major $25 million Gil Hanse/Jim Wagner restoration (completed ahead of 2024 play). The goal was to restore its original rugged Texas character—relocating greens, removing outdated bunkers, lowering elevated greens, and improving sightlines and drainage—while extending it to a historical long of 7,289 yards.

Key Stats & Features:

·       Par 70 with four par 3s, two par 5s.

·       Narrow fairways (avg. ~27-30 yards wide, among the tightest on Tour) lined with TifTuf Bermuda rough at 2.5".

·       Small Bentgrass greens (avg. 5,000 sq. ft., stimp ~12-13 ft) — among the smallest and most challenging.

·       Water in play on ~6 holes; 64 bunkers.

·       Emphasis on accuracy off the tee, approach precision (especially mid-to-long irons), bogey avoidance, and scrambling.

·       golfbettingsystem.co.uk +1

·Signature Stretch: The "Horrible Horseshoe" (Holes 3-5) is a brutal test of accuracy and strategy. Iconic par-3 13th ("the finest par 3 in Texas") plays over water to a small, well-guarded green.

· 

✅What Type of Golfer Wins Here?

·       Accuracy over distance: Tight fairways punish wild drivers. Look for strong SG: Off-the-Tee (accuracy component), driving accuracy, and low missed fairway penalties.

·       Elite iron play: Small greens demand precision on approaches, especially 150-200+ yards. SG: Approach and GIR are critical.

·       Course management & bogey avoidance: Scrambling and short game around the greens matter when approaches miss.

·       Bentgrass putters: Greens are pure Bentgrass; consistent rollers reward good speed control.

·       Recent winners (post-restoration trends) favor balanced ball-strikers who excel on technical, classic tracks rather than pure bombers.

·        

·       Players like Russell Henley (accuracy king), Ludvig Åberg (all-around elite), and past winners like Zach Johnson or Justin Rose fit the mold perfectly.

Event History

This is the 80th playing at Colonial. Ben Hogan owns the record with 5 wins. Multiple winners include Phil Mickelson, Zach Johnson, Nick Price, Kenny Perry, and others.

Recent Winners:

• 2025: Ben Griffin (-12)

• 2024: Davis Riley (-14)

• 2023: Emiliano Grillo (-8, playoff)

• 2022: Sam Burns (-9, playoff)

• 2021: Jason Kokrak (-14)

• 2020: Daniel Berger (-15, playoff)

• 2018: Justin Rose (-20)

• 2016: Jordan Spieth (-17)

• 2010: Zach Johnson (-21, course record 259)

Low scores are possible (record 259), but the course plays tough with small greens and narrow fairways—expect winning scores around -10 to -15 in normal conditions.

💰The Purse

The Charles Schwab Challenge offers a mid-tier purse at $9,900,000. Even with a mid-tier purse it attracts a stronger field due to the history and appeal of the event and the course.

☁️Weather Forecast

·        Warm, humid Texas spring conditions expected. Temperatures in the mid-80s to low 90s°F, with possible scattered showers/thunderstorms (especially weekend) and light-to-moderate winds. Firming conditions likely as the week progresses.

·         

·        Thu (R1): High ~83-89°F winds light (5-10 mph), low rain chance.

·        Fri (R2): Similar, possibly breezier.

·        Sat/Sun: Higher chance of isolated storms; winds 10-15+ mph possible. Heat and humidity will test stamina.

·        Scoring windows best early in rounds if winds stay down.

Our Favorite Golfers This Week (DraftKings pricing and odds)

Top Picks T15 or better

Ludvig Aberg ($10,500 DK; +970 to win)

Ludvig Åberg enters as the clear betting favorite (around +900 to +1000) and the highest-upside player in the field. He has been on a tear with six top-10s in his last seven starts, including strong showings in recent majors, and leads the field in recent tee-to-green play and adjusted scoring. Colonial rewards precision over power—SG: Approach, driving accuracy, and bogey avoidance are key on its tight, dogleg-heavy layout with small greens—and Åberg’s elite ball-striking fits perfectly. Even as a debutant (with some history of strong amateur play nearby at Texas Tech), his current form makes a top-15 (or better) highly likely.

Justin Thomas ($9,800 DK; +2300 to win)

Justin Thomas is heating up at the right time, posting a T4 at the PGA Championship with a final-round 65 and showing consistent improvement. He has seven top-20s at Colonial since 2011 in past visits and thrives on strategic, thinking-man’s courses where he can shape shots and manage his game. A renewed putting approach and strong recent ball-striking position him well for another solid week and a comfortable top-15.

Rickie Fowler ($9,600 DK; +2300 to win)

Rickie Fowler arrives with serious momentum: three top-10s in four starts before the PGA, excellent tee-to-green numbers, and a history of performing at Colonial. The course’s emphasis on accuracy and short-game creativity suits his game when he’s dialed in, and his recent heater suggests he’ll avoid big mistakes and contend for a high finish.

Fade - Outside of top 15

Robert MacIntyre ($9,900 DK; +2450 to win)

Robert MacIntyre has shown flashes (T6 here last year) but arrives in inconsistent form, with a missed cut at the PGA and no top-20s since early in the year. Colonial demands precision off the tee and on approaches, areas where his recent play has been shaky.

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,500 DK; +3100 to win)

Hideki Matsuyama has been streaky, with driver woes (poor SG: Off-the-Tee and accuracy rankings) hurting him on a course that punishes misses. While he has talent, his recent results don’t inspire confidence for a top-15 push at this venue.

Keegan Bradley ($8,900 DK; +3600 to win)

Keegan Bradley has a runner-up here in 2024 but lacks the current consistency and form to stand out in a strong field. His game hasn’t aligned perfectly with Colonial’s demands lately, making a top-15 a tough ask.

Dark Horse - outright winner to top 15

Alex Smalley ($9,100 DK; +3300 to win)

Alex Smalley is on fire with six straight top-25s, including a T2 at the PGA Championship and recent heroics. His steady play and course-fit stats (high in models for Colonial) make him a live longshot for a big week.

Pierceson Coody ($8,600 DK; +4700 to win)

Pierceson Coody (Texas native) has solid history here (T5 in 2024, T16 recently) and is showing renewed form with strong putting and cuts made lately. Home-state comfort and a precision game suit Colonial perfectly for a breakout top-15.

Sudarshan Yellamaraju ($7,400 DK; +8400 to win)

Sudarshan Yellamaraju ranks highly in course-fit models for Colonial thanks to strong approach and accuracy play. As a lesser-known name gaining traction, he could surprise with a low-scoring, mistake-free week.

Akshay Bhatia ($9,000 DK; +3400 to win)

Akshay Bhatia brings upside with recent wins/contention and solid stats in key areas like birdie-making. He has the talent to go low on a course that rewards creativity and iron play, positioning him as a dangerous dark horse.

DFS using DK Pricing Picks by Tier

Again, we are embracing reasonable risk this weekend, you should too.

$10k+

Ludvig Aberg $10,500

Not being redundant the write up and reason why we like him is above

$9k+

Justin Thomas $9,800, Rickie Fowler $9,600, Alex Smalley $9,100, and Akshay Bhatia $9,000

All have their write-ups above, along with why we like them this week.

Ben Griffin $9,400

The defending champion returns to a course where he won last year at 12-under. Griffin has shown strong recent form with a T14 at the PGA Championship and a 3rd at the Cadillac Championship. As a proven Colonial performer and reliable scorer on this layout, he's a high-floor anchor who can contend again. Solid ownership but worth the premium for the repeat potential.

J.J. Spaun $9,200

Elite approach play (top-10 on Tour) pairs perfectly with Colonial's iron demands. Spaun tied for 6th here last year (just behind Griffin), won the Valero Texas Open, and has been a ball-striking standout. Recent missed cut at the PGA is a buy-low spot; his accuracy off the tee and history make him a high-ceiling GPP pivot with strong cash-game appeal despite putting concerns.

$8k+

Pierceson Coody $8,600

Not being redundant the write up and reason why we like him is above

Gary Woodland $8,400

Woodland has multiple top-15s at Colonial and posted a T11 recently. His form includes a Houston Open win and solid non-major results (T8 at RBC Heritage, T17 at Truist). As a proven major winner with power and touch around the greens, he offers upside at this mid-range salary on a course that has suited him in the past.

Sungjae Im $8,300

Im has consistent Colonial history (T9 in 2024, T15 in 2022) and is a tee-to-green machine who excels in ball-striking events. Recent strong play at the Byron Nelson keeps him in form. He's a safe floor play with scoring upside on a track that rewards his iron play and scrambling.

Sahith Theegala $8,000

Theegala brings high variance and big-scoring potential with strong recent ball-striking flashes (including low rounds in big events). At $8k, he offers leverage against higher-owned stars. His ability to go low when dialed in makes him a GPP dart on a course where creativity around the greens can pay off.

$7k+

Tony Finau $7,700

Finau has a solid Colonial track record, including strong putting rounds here in the past and multiple made cuts. His length and improved short game give him the tools to contend on this layout. At this price, he's a balanced mid-tier option with distance advantage and proven event experience.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout $7,600

"Bez" is a cut-maker extraordinaire with a T16 here last year and steady scoring. His precision iron play and short game fit Colonial's demands well. Reliable for cash games as a low-ownership stabilizer who consistently posts solid totals.

Max Greyserman $7,900

Greyserman is in excellent form with a T9 at the Byron Nelson and T14 at the PGA Championship. He's a consistent ball-striker rising quickly on Tour. This salary hits the sweet spot for a player with upside who can contend without breaking the bank.

Sudarshan Yellamaraju $7,400

Not being redundant the write up and reason why we like him is above

$6k+

Mark Hubbard $6,800

Hubbard is a Colonial specialist (perfect 7/7 made cuts, T9 in 2023) and a value machine with strong recent finishes (runner-up at Myrtle Beach, solid Byron Nelson). Approach play and course history make him a standout low-owned cash and tournament play.

Karl Vilips $6,800

The young Australian brings strong amateur/early pro pedigree (Stanford standout, recent win) and solid driving/iron metrics. At this price, he offers high-upside volatility as a rookie with fresh legs and talent to outperform salary on a precision course.

Luke Clanton $6,400

The Ben Hogan Award winner and rising talent gets his first crack at Colonial as a pro invite. Low salary for a player with proven amateur success against strong fields and recent momentum. Pure upside dart for GPPs—cheap enough to pair with stars while carrying win equity if he gets hot.

Our One-and-Done Picks

Collin – Pierceson Coody

Frank – Rickie Fowler

That’s it for this week. Check back next Wednesday for our Memorial Tournament preview and follow us on our new X account @FTO_picks and @FTO_Fun

*This preview does not represent our final betting picks for this event. For our full set of picks, check our our Game Picks section!

**Odds accurate at time of posting.