BMW Championship 2026: DFS and Betting Preview

The PGA Tour Playoffs roll on this week as the top 50 players in the FedEx Cup standings head to St. Louis for the BMW Championship at Bellerive Country Club. With just two events remaining in the season, the stakes couldn't be much higher.

The field has been trimmed from 70 players to just 50, and after this week only the top 30 will advance to the season-ending Tour Championship at East Lake. That creates an interesting dynamic for both DFS and betting, as some players are fighting for a spot at East Lake while others are simply trying to win one of the biggest events of the season.

Scottie Scheffler enters as the clear favorite after absolutely dominating the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week, winning by eight strokes. But Bellerive presents a very different challenge, and there are plenty of opportunities to find value throughout the field.

Let's break down this week's course, key stats, weather, DFS strategy, and our favorite plays.

⛳ Course Breakdown: Bellerive Country Club

Bellerive Country Club is a long, traditional parkland-style course located just outside St. Louis. The par-70 layout stretches 7,448 yards and features narrow, tree-lined fairways, plenty of bunkers and large, undulating bentgrass greens.

The course has plenty of history, having hosted the 1965 U.S. Open, the 1992 and 2018 PGA Championships and the 2008 BMW Championship. Brooks Koepka won the 2018 PGA Championship here at 16-under, while Camilo Villegas won the 2008 BMW at 15-under.

The biggest takeaway for DFS purposes is that Bellerive should reward strong ball striking. There are five par-4s measuring more than 450 yards, including three around or above 500 yards, while both par-5s measure more than 600 yards.

The greens are among the largest on the PGA Tour, which should reduce the importance of scrambling and around-the-green play while placing additional emphasis on approach play and putting.

This is a course where we want golfers who can generate power off the tee while also possessing the iron play necessary to attack these long approach shots.

🔑 Key Stats to Target

When building DFS lineups and evaluating outright bets, we are prioritizing:

• Strokes Gained: Approach

• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee

• Driving Distance

• Strokes Gained: Putting

• Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass

• Par 4 Scoring

• Approaches from 150-200 yards

• Par 4 Scoring from 450-500 yards

• Sand Save Percentage

Ball striking is going to be the biggest focus this week. The combination of Bellerive's length, difficult approach shots and penalizing rough makes it difficult to consistently score without a strong tee-to-green game.

We also want to pay close attention to putting on bentgrass. With such large greens, three-putt avoidance and the ability to convert birdie opportunities will be particularly important.

☁️ Weather Forecast

The weather looks relatively favorable for scoring throughout the week in St. Louis. Temperatures are expected to remain in the mid-80s, with generally light winds throughout the tournament. There is some chance of rain early in the week, but the current forecast does not suggest a significant weather advantage between the tee-time waves.

The lack of strong wind is important at a course like Bellerive. A calm forecast should allow the longer hitters to take aggressive lines off the tee and attack the par-5s, while also making the long par-4s more manageable.

At the moment, we don't see enough weather disparity to make tee-time splits a major factor in lineup construction. As always, we'll want to check the forecast again Wednesday night and Thursday morning before locking in DFS lineups.

💰 DFS Strategy

The BMW Championship presents a very different DFS environment than a typical PGA Tour event.

With only 50 golfers in the field and no cut, every player is guaranteed four rounds. That means we don't need to focus on cut-making probability in the same way we normally would.

Instead, we should prioritize win equity, birdie upside and finishing-position potential.

The smaller field also makes ownership particularly important. There aren't many obvious punts, and paying up for one or two elite golfers can force lineups into uncomfortable value ranges.

For cash games, we're prioritizing players with strong all-around profiles and reliable tee-to-green games.

In GPPs, we're willing to embrace more volatility and target players who have legitimate tournament-winning upside but may carry some additional risk.

Cash Game Core

Sam Burns ($10,400 DK; +1800 to win)

Burns is our favorite high-end DFS option this week. He has been incredibly consistent lately, finishing T20 or better in six straight starts and recording four top-four finishes during that stretch. His recent approach and putting numbers are excellent, and Bellerive's combination of length and large bentgrass greens sets up well for his skill set. Burns is also coming off a T3 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, making it difficult to ignore his current form.

Si Woo Kim ($9,100 DK; +2700 to win)

Kim is one of our favorite values in the upper-middle range. He possesses an excellent combination of driving ability and approach play, and he finished runner-up last week in Memphis.The putting and short game can occasionally create volatility, but Bellerive's large greens should help minimize some of that concern. He's priced below several golfers with less compelling current form and represents one of our favorite cash-game plays.

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,000 DK; +2700 to win)

Matsuyama is another strong fit for this course. His recent driving accuracy has improved considerably, while his elite iron play gives him the type of foundation we want at Bellerive.

The putter let him down last week, but we're willing to give him another opportunity on a course where his overall ball-striking profile should shine.

GPP Targets

Viktor Hovland ($8,800 DK; +2700 to win)

Hovland is exactly the type of golfer we want to target in large-field tournaments. His floor can be volatile, but the ball-striking upside is enormous, and multiple models rank him considerably higher than his DraftKings salary would suggest. If he can avoid the disastrous mistakes that occasionally creep into his short game, Hovland has legitimate top-five and win equity at this price.

Patrick Cantlay ($8,500 DK; +2900 to win)

Cantlay is an interesting tournament option because his putting has historically held him back, but the rest of his game remains extremely well-rounded. He's coming off a T12 at the FedEx St. Jude and has three top-15 finishes in his last five starts. More importantly, he's currently 43rd in the FedEx Cup standings and needs a strong finish to qualify for East Lake, giving him plenty of motivation.

Michael Thorbjornsen ($7,500 DK; +5200 to win)

Thorbjornsen is one of our favorite lower-priced tournament targets. He's currently 41st in the FedEx Cup standings and needs approximately a top-eight finish to advance to the Tour Championship. The larger greens at Bellerive could help him considerably, and his driving accuracy and putting were both strong last week. The combination of price, motivation and upside makes him an appealing GPP piece.

Alex Smalley ($6,700 DK; +8000 to win)

Smalley provides some salary relief without completely sacrificing upside. He's ranked inside the top 40 on Tour in SG: Approach, SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Putting and GIR.

At just $6,700, he doesn't need to contend for the tournament to provide value, but his overall profile gives him legitimate top-20 and even top-10 upside.

Ryan Fox ($6,200 DK; +13000 to win)

Fox is our preferred punt play. He struggled in his first tournament following his Open Championship victory, but this is a much better setup for his strengths.

He's a strong driver and putter and currently sits 25th in the FedEx Cup standings, meaning he should be playing without the same pressure as some of the players fighting to reach East Lake.

💰 Early Betting Card

Outright Winners

• Sam Burns (+1800)

• Wyndham Clark (+3000)

• Michael Brennan (+5500)

  
  

Top 10 Target

• Gary Woodland (+375)

Top 20 Bets

• Ryan Fox (+184)

🧠 Final Thoughts

The BMW Championship is one of the most interesting DFS events of the season because the field is loaded, but the format is completely different from a typical PGA Tour tournament.

With no cut, we can afford to take more chances on players with legitimate upside. We're emphasizing elite ball strikers, long hitters and golfers who can putt on bentgrass while paying less attention to traditional scrambling statistics.

Scottie Scheffler is obviously capable of winning again after his eight-shot demolition of the field last week, but his elevated DraftKings salary makes roster construction more difficult. Instead, we're particularly interested in Sam Burns, Si Woo Kim and Hideki Matsuyama in the upper tiers, while Viktor Hovland and Michael Thorbjornsen provide the tournament-winning upside we want in GPPs.

Good luck this week!

Our One-and-Done Picks

Collin – Ludvig Aberg

Frank – Sam Burns

That’s it for this week. Check back Wednesday for our Tour Championship preview and follow us on X @FTO_picks and @FTO_fun!

*This preview does not represent our final betting picks for this event. For our full set of picks, check out our Game Picks section here!

**Odds accurate at time of posting.