FedEx St. Jude Championship 2026: DFS and Betting Preview

The PGA Tour Playoffs are finally here, and the first stop is Memphis for the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind. After a long regular season, only 69 golfers remain in the field, with the top 50 advancing to next week's BMW Championship.

That creates a completely different dynamic from the typical PGA Tour event. There is plenty of motivation throughout the field, while the $20 million purse and 2,000 FedExCup points give the elite players plenty to play for as well. With a strong field and a difficult course that rewards precision, this should be one of the more interesting DFS and betting events of the summer.

Let's break down this week's course, key stats, DFS strategy, and our favorite plays.

⛳ Course Breakdown: TPC Southwind

TPC Southwind is a very different test from last week's Wyndham Championship. The Memphis layout is a 7,288-yard par 70 featuring narrow fairways, Bermuda rough, small Bermuda greens, and water hazards that come into play on 11 holes.

The course doesn't necessarily demand elite distance, but it does demand accuracy and strong approach play. There are eight par-4s measuring roughly 450 yards or longer, while only two par-5s are available for easy scoring opportunities. That puts a premium on players who can consistently find fairways and attack these longer par-4s with their irons.

TPC Southwind has produced winning scores between 15-under and 17-under in each of the four years it has hosted the FedEx St. Jude Championship as a playoff event. Last year's tournament finished at 16-under, with Justin Rose defeating J.J. Spaun in a playoff.

This isn't a course where we want to chase golfers simply because they can overpower the field. Ball striking and precision are much more important, particularly with small greens and trouble lurking around the fairways.

🔑 Key Stats to Target

When building DFS lineups and evaluating outright bets, we are prioritizing:

• Driving Accuracy

• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green

• Strokes Gained: Approach

• Greens in Regulation

• Ball Striking

• Par-4 Efficiency (450-500 yards)

The biggest takeaway is simple: ball striking is king at TPC Southwind.

Last year's top four finishers all ranked inside the top 14 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, inside the top 13 in Strokes Gained: Approach, and inside the top seven in Greens in Regulation. That is about as strong of a signal as we can get when determining the profile we want to target this week.

Putting is obviously still important, but we aren't going to overweight it. The smaller greens can reduce the difference between elite and poor putters, making putting performance more difficult to predict. We would rather lean on statistics that are more stable from week to week.

☁️ Weather Forecast

Memphis in August is going to be hot. Very hot.

Temperatures are expected to push into the upper 90s throughout the tournament and could approach triple digits over the weekend. Winds are expected to remain relatively light, while significant rain does not currently appear to be a major concern.

That should create fairly consistent conditions throughout the tournament, meaning we aren't currently seeing a major reason to prioritize one tee-time wave over the other. The heat is more likely to be a factor for the players themselves than a meaningful DFS weather edge.

As always, we recommend checking the forecast again Thursday morning before locking lineups. Memphis heat and humidity can change quickly, and any unexpected thunderstorms would obviously alter the equation.

💰 DFS Strategy

This is one of the better DFS tournaments of the year for emphasizing ball striking over raw scoring upside.

With only 69 golfers in the field, there is no cut this week, meaning every player is guaranteed four rounds. That changes roster construction considerably. We don't need to worry about six golfers simply surviving Friday; instead, we're looking for players who can accumulate finishing-position points while producing birdies throughout the weekend.

In cash games, we still want to prioritize high-floor golfers with strong tee-to-green profiles. The no-cut format makes expensive stars particularly appealing because there is less downside associated with paying up.

For GPPs, however, ownership becomes extremely important. The field is small enough that popular plays can become highly concentrated, so we are willing to take some chances on lower-owned golfers with legitimate top-10 or win equity.

Cash Game Core

Scottie Scheffler ($13,500 DK; +455)

Scheffler is the obvious starting point in cash games. He hasn't dominated the way we've become accustomed to seeing, but he's still first in the FedExCup standings and has five runner-up finishes along with 11 total top-five/top-10 finishes this season.

More importantly for this particular tournament, Scheffler finished fourth at Southwind in 2024 and third last year while ranking second on Tour in ball striking. At a course where precision is so important, there aren't many safer options in the field.

Matt Fitzpatrick ($9,900 DK; +2250)

Fitzpatrick is one of our favorite mid-range plays. He enters the week after a missed cut at The Open, but that came after finishes of second, third, and fourth in his previous four starts. He's also ranked first on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach and second in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green. His history at Southwind is excellent as well, with three consecutive top-six finishes before last year's T32.

Tom Kim ($7,900 DK; +5100)

Kim gives us a little more salary flexibility without sacrificing much course fit. He's coming off a top-five at the Wyndham and has three top-five finishes in his last six starts.

His sixth-ranked Approach and 14th-ranked Around-the-Green numbers are particularly attractive at Southwind. He's also finished 13th and 24th in previous appearances at the course.

GPP Targets

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,000 DK; +2900)

Matsuyama is one of the most obvious course-history plays of the week. He won this event in 2024 and finished runner-up in 2021, and his approach and short-game numbers remain excellent. The concern is the driver, which has been inconsistent for much of the season. Still, his driving has improved recently, and a return to a course where he's already had tremendous success makes him an intriguing GPP option.

Rickie Fowler ($7,500 DK; +6800)

Fowler has quietly put together a really strong 2026 season, recording five top-10s and 10 top-25s. He also finished sixth here last year.

At this salary, we don't need Fowler to win the tournament to make him a useful DFS play. If his ownership remains reasonable, he offers an attractive combination of course history, current form, and finishing-position upside.

Jordan Smith ($6,600 DK; +9200)

This is the type of value play we want to find in GPPs. Smith leads the PGA Tour in ball striking, which immediately puts him on our radar at a course where that skill is arguably the most important factor. Smith's short game is the concern, but at only $6,600, we're willing to accept some volatility. He also comes in off a T14 at the Wyndham and has eight top-25 finishes this season.

Bud Cauley ($6,500 DK; +10500)

Cauley is another salary-saving option we like for tournaments. He's already secured his spot in the BMW Championship, so there isn't the same pressure that some of the bubble players are facing. He's also having a resurgent season, including a win at the Canadian Open and eight top-25 finishes. Cauley finished T14 at Southwind last year, making him one of our favorite cheap options in the field.

💰 Early Betting Card

Outright Winners

• Scottie Scheffler (+455)

• Tom Kim (+5100)

• Rickie Fowler (+6800)

Top 10 Target

• Jordan Smith

Top 20 Target

• Bud Cauley

🧠 Final Thoughts

The FedExCup Playoffs are finally here, and the FedEx St. Jude Championship gives us one of the best course-fit tournaments of the year.

TPC Southwind isn't about overpowering the golf course. We want players who can consistently find fairways, hit greens, and navigate the longer par-4s without putting themselves in trouble. That makes ball striking and approach play the foundation of our DFS builds and betting card.

The no-cut format also creates an interesting DFS dynamic. In cash games, we can comfortably pay up for elite golfers like Scheffler, while GPP players should be looking for leverage and lower-owned golfers with legitimate finishing-position upside.

Good luck this week, and as always, be sure to check for any late withdrawals, weather updates, and ownership changes before locking your DFS lineups or placing your bets.

Our One-and-Done Picks

Collin - TBD

Frank - Tommy Fleetwood

That’s it for this week. Check back Wednesday for our BMW Championship preview and follow us on X @FTO_picks and @FTO_fun!

*This preview does not represent our final betting picks for this event. For our full set of picks, check out our Game Picks section here!

**Odds accurate at time of posting.